Wind Performance Improves as India’s Renewable Generation Falls 3% Below P90 in FY26
September 30, 2026
India’s renewable energy sector showed signs of improved operating performance in FY26, although overall generation across Fitch Ratings’ rated renewable project-finance portfolio remained below expectations. According to Fitch, renewable generation was around 3% below its one-year P90 forecast, an improvement from the previous fiscal year.
A key development was the improvement in wind asset performance, highlighting the importance of portfolio diversification between solar and wind. Wind generation can vary significantly with weather conditions, making long-term resource assessment and P90 benchmarking important for project financing and debt-servicing assumptions.
The P90 benchmark is particularly relevant to renewable-energy projects because lenders and investors use it to assess expected generation and the cash flows available for debt repayment. Even relatively modest deviations from forecast generation can influence project-level financial cushions. Earlier analysis by Crisil also highlighted the financial sensitivity of renewable projects to generation below P90 levels.
Wind power continues to play an important complementary role alongside solar generation. Solar generation is concentrated primarily during daylight hours, while wind resources can contribute during evening, night-time and monsoon periods.
This complementary generation profile can become increasingly valuable as India adds larger volumes of variable renewable energy to its electricity system.
Improving asset performance is only one part of India’s renewable-energy expansion. As the share of solar and wind increases, developers and utilities also need stronger transmission networks, forecasting, storage and flexible power resources.
Battery energy storage systems, pumped-storage hydropower and hybrid wind-solar projects can help manage differences between renewable generation and electricity demand.
The improvement reported for FY26 provides an important indicator for India’s renewable project-finance market. It also reinforces the need to evaluate renewable projects not only by installed capacity, but by resource quality, generation performance, financial resilience and grid integration.
For developers, lenders and commercial and industrial energy consumers, understanding actual operating performance against P90 forecasts can provide a more realistic picture of renewable-project reliability and financial sustainability.
India’s renewable-energy sector continues to expand, but performance against expected generation remains an important consideration for investors and lenders. The improvement in wind performance during FY26, alongside the broader shift toward diversified renewable portfolios, storage and hybrid projects, points toward a more integrated approach to managing renewable-energy variability.
